Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 8 · 14:30 · St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 35%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli52%35%+16
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−8
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt28%37%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 48% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 65% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 49% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossWinLossWinWin
- Feb 28 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Feb 3 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Mar 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Feb 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-3
- Feb 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-0
- Feb 6 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.