Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 11 · 16:30 · St. Pauli vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 65%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli16%12%+4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
FC Bayern München65%69%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 31% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 88% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 15% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 5 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-0
FC Bayern München
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 4 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
- Mar 18 · v Atalanta (H)4-1
- Mar 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 8-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.