Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:30 · St. Pauli vs FC Köln
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli36%33%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
FC Köln38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 47% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Apr 5 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
FC Köln
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 12 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-1
- Apr 5 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.