Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Nov 23 · 16:30 · St. Pauli vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 49%
A 49% away win. The market says 33%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli28%37%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin49%33%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 42% | +20 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 67% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 63% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 53% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-4
- Oct 25 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
- Oct 19 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-3
- Oct 4 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
FC Union Berlin
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Nov 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-0
- Oct 29 · v DSC Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Oct 24 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.