Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 3 · 13:30 · St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 45%
A 45% away win. The market says 38%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli28%34%−6
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0545%38%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 62% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 66% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 47% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Heidenheim (A)0-2
- Apr 17 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Apr 5 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-2
FSV Mainz 05
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-4
- Apr 19 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · at Strasbourg (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Apr 9 · v Strasbourg (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.