Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 13 · 14:30 · St. Pauli vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 53%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli53%48%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
Heidenheim24%24%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 66% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 6 · at FC Köln (A)1-1
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-3
- Nov 23 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
Heidenheim
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Dec 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-6
- Nov 1 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.