Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 15 · 14:30 · St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
St. Pauli37%——
OursMarket
Draw28%——
OursMarket
SC Freiburg35%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Feb 9 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Jan 26 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · at Heidenheim (A)2-0
- Jan 15 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)0-1
SC Freiburg
LossLossLossWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Heidenheim (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-0
- Jan 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Jan 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.