Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 22 · 16:30 · St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 41%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli41%35%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
SC Freiburg33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 52% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-2
- Mar 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
SC Freiburg
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 19 · v Genk (H)5-1
- Mar 15 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Mar 12 · at Genk (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 1 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.