Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Mar 14 · 19:30 · St. Pauli vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
St. Pauli38%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 8 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- Feb 22 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-2
- Feb 15 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Feb 9 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
TSG Hoffenheim
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Mar 9 · v Heidenheim (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-0
- Feb 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)1-1
- Feb 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 4-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.