Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 7 · 14:30 · St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 45%
A 31% home win. The market says 22%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli31%22%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart45%52%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 48% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 78% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 29% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Feb 3 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-0
- Jan 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
VfB Stuttgart
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 4 · at Holstein Kiel (A)3-0
- Feb 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-0
- Jan 29 · v Young Boys (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-0
- Jan 22 · at Roma (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.