Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 33%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli41%33%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg33%41%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 67% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- May 9 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-2
- May 3 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Heidenheim (A)0-2
- Apr 17 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
VfL Wolfsburg
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 9 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-1
- May 3 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-0
- Apr 18 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.