Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 22 · 16:30 · St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: St. Pauli win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 35%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St. Pauli50%35%+15
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−7
OursMarket
Werder Bremen27%35%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 65% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 65% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 50% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St. Pauli
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Feb 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
- Feb 3 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-1
Werder Bremen
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-1
- Jan 27 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | St. Pauli | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.