3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sun, Sep 27 · 14:00 · Stabæk Fotball II vs Flekkerøy
Likeliest: Stabæk Fotball II win · 63%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stabæk Fotball II63%42%+22
OursMarket
Draw18%23%−6
OursMarket
Flekkerøy19%35%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 75% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 65% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 58% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 54% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stabæk Fotball II
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 21 · at Odds BK II (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Vindbjart (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Viking FK II (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)2-1
- Aug 17 · at Varhaug (A)0-2
Flekkerøy
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Varhaug (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at FK Mandalskameratene (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Madla (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Åkra (A)4-1
- Aug 15 · v Brodd (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stabæk Fotball II | Flekkerøy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-2 | 2-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.