3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sun, Sep 13 · 16:00 · Stabæk Fotball II vs Vindbjart
Likeliest: Stabæk Fotball II win · 40%
A 25% draw. The market says 19%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stabæk Fotball II40%19%+21
OursMarket
Draw25%19%+6
OursMarket
Vindbjart35%62%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 75% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 38% | +28 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 81% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 23% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stabæk Fotball II
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Viking FK II (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · v Staal Jørpeland (H)2-1
- Aug 17 · at Varhaug (A)0-2
- Aug 9 · v Våg FK (H)2-0
- Aug 3 · at Brodd (A)2-2
Vindbjart
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Hinna (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Haugesund II (A)4-0
- Aug 15 · v Åkra (H)6-0
- Aug 8 · at Madla (A)3-4
- Aug 3 · v Odds BK II (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stabæk Fotball II | Vindbjart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 5-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.