1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Stabæk Fotball vs Odds BK
Likeliest: Stabæk Fotball win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stabæk Fotball53%51%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Odds BK26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stabæk Fotball
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Åsane (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)4-1
- Oct 11 · v Strømmen IF (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Haugesund (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
Odds BK
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Strømmen IF (H)1-2
- Oct 14 · at Sogndal IL (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Bryne FK (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Hødd IL (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · v Egersund (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Stabæk Fotball | Odds BK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.