1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Stabæk Fotball vs Strømmen IF
Likeliest: Stabæk Fotball win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stabæk Fotball65%68%−3
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Strømmen IF15%15%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 72% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 85% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 32% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stabæk Fotball
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Haugesund (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Pors Grenland (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Bryne FK (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Moss FK (H)2-3
Strømmen IF
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Haugesund (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · at Sogndal IL (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Bryne FK (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Moss FK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stabæk Fotball | Strømmen IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-1 | 2-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.