Schweizer Cup (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:15 · Stade Nyonnais vs Basel
Likeliest: Basel win · 78%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 78% for the away win. The market says 83%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stade Nyonnais7%7%0
OursMarket
Draw16%11%+5
OursMarket
Basel78%83%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 43% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 22% | 17% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 89% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stade Nyonnais
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 9 · v FC Aarau (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)0-5
- Sep 11 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-4
- Sep 1 · v FC Winterthur (H)2-2
Basel
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at FC Vaduz (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Gallen 1879 (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Luzern (A)4-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Lugano (H)1-3
- Sep 3 · v FC Sion (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Stade Nyonnais | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.