Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:15 · Stade Nyonnais vs FC Aarau
Likeliest: FC Aarau win · 69%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 66% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stade Nyonnais12%16%−3
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
FC Aarau69%65%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 19% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stade Nyonnais
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)0-5
- Sep 11 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-4
- Sep 1 · v FC Winterthur (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · at SC Kriens (A)0-3
FC Aarau
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · at FC Winterthur (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v SC Kriens (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at FC Wil 1900 (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Neuchâtel Xamax (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stade Nyonnais | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-7 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 89% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 89% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.