Challenge League (Switzerland) · Tue, Sep 1 · 17:30 · Stade Nyonnais vs FC Winterthur
Likeliest: Stade Nyonnais win · 52%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stade Nyonnais52%23%+30
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
FC Winterthur24%55%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 62% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 45% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 77% | −29 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 29% | +39 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stade Nyonnais
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · at SC Kriens (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at FC Aarau (A)1-2
- Jul 31 · v FC Rapperswil-Jona (H)1-2
- Jul 24 · at FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (A)0-2
FC Winterthur
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 28 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-1
- Aug 21 · at FC Rapperswil-Jona (A)2-0
- Aug 7 · v FC Wil 1900 (H)5-0
- Jul 31 · at SC Kriens (A)0-2
- Jul 24 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Stade Nyonnais | FC Winterthur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-4 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.