Challenge League (Switzerland) · Fri, Sep 11 · 17:30 · Stade Nyonnais vs Neuchâtel Xamax
Likeliest: Neuchâtel Xamax win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stade Nyonnais24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Neuchâtel Xamax51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stade Nyonnais
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · at Yverdon-Sport FC (A)1-4
- Sep 1 · v FC Winterthur (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · at SC Kriens (A)0-3
- Aug 21 · v Étoile Carouge FC (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · at FC Aarau (A)1-2
Neuchâtel Xamax
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 4 · at FC Winterthur (A)0-4
- Sep 1 · v Yverdon-Sport FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at FC Aarau (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v FC Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Étoile Carouge FC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Stade Nyonnais | Neuchâtel Xamax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-5 | 3-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.