Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:30 · Standard Liège vs RC Sporting Charleroi
Likeliest: RC Sporting Charleroi win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Standard Liège29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
RC Sporting Charleroi41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Standard Liège
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at KAA Gent (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at KVC Westerlo (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · v RAAL La Louvière (H)2-0
RC Sporting Charleroi
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Cercle Brugge (H)3-2
- Sep 13 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-3
- Aug 29 · at KV Kortrijk (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v KV Mechelen (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Standard Liège | RC Sporting Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 43% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.