Premier Division (South Africa) · Fri, Sep 11 · 17:30 · Stellenbosch vs Sekhukhune United
Likeliest: Stellenbosch win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stellenbosch36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+2
OursMarket
Sekhukhune United31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stellenbosch
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 1 · at Durban City FC (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Marumo Gallants FC (H)3-1
- Aug 11 · at Polokwane City (A)3-3
- Aug 1 · v AmaZulu FC (H)0-1
Sekhukhune United
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v TS Galaxy (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Orlando Pirates (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Polokwane City (H)2-0
- Aug 12 · at Kaizer Chiefs (A)0-2
- Aug 1 · v Durban City FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Stellenbosch | Sekhukhune United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.