Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Stevenage vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Leicester City win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 68% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage30%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Leicester City42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 22 · at Walsall (A)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Luton Town (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Barnsley (A)5-1
- Sep 1 · at Peterborough United (A)0-0
Leicester City
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 22 · v Fulham U21 (H)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Barnsley (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Stockport County (A)4-3
- Sep 5 · v Oxford United (H)0-4
- Sep 1 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.