League One (England) · Thu, Sep 10 · 19:00 · Stevenage vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Stevenage win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 31%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage40%31%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Luton Town32%42%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 53% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 42% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 5 · at Barnsley (A)5-1
- Sep 1 · at Peterborough United (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Reading (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Oxford United (H)1-2
Luton Town
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Leyton Orient (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Stockport County (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-5
- Aug 27 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Notts County (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.