League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons
Likeliest: Stevenage win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage37%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Milton Keynes Dons32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Bradford City (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Wigan Athletic (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Walsall (A)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-1
Milton Keynes Dons
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Luton Town (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Reading (H)1-5
- Oct 6 · v Brentford U21 (H)7-1
- Sep 22 · v Crawley Town (H)4-1
- Sep 17 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.