League One (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Stevenage vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Stevenage win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 39%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage53%39%+14
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Oxford United20%32%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 45% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 37% | 50% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 68% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 61% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 55% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Aug 15 · at Burton Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-1
- May 13 · at Stockport County (A)0-2
- May 9 · v Stockport County (H)0-1
- May 2 · v Wigan Athletic (H)1-0
Oxford United
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 15 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
- May 2 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-1
- Apr 21 · v Wrexham (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.