League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Plymouth Argyle38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Bradford City (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Wigan Athletic (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Walsall (A)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-1
Plymouth Argyle
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Newport County (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.