League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic
Likeliest: Stevenage win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stevenage43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Wigan Athletic27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stevenage
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 6 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Sep 22 · at Walsall (A)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Luton Town (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Barnsley (A)5-1
Wigan Athletic
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 22 · v Blackpool (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Stockport County (H)0-4
- Sep 2 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Stevenage | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.