Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Stjarnan Garðabær vs KA Akureyri
Likeliest: Stjarnan Garðabær win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stjarnan Garðabær52%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
KA Akureyri24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stjarnan Garðabær
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)2-5
- Sep 13 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-2
- Aug 31 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)2-0
- Aug 23 · v Þór Akureyri (H)4-2
KA Akureyri
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Þór Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · v KR Reykjavík (H)3-5
| Last 10 games | Stjarnan Garðabær | KA Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 0-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.