Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Stjarnan Garðabær vs Valur Reykjavík
Likeliest: Stjarnan Garðabær win · 52%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stjarnan Garðabær52%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Valur Reykjavík28%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 78% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stjarnan Garðabær
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Þór Akureyri (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · v KA Akureyri (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)2-5
- Sep 13 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (H)2-2
Valur Reykjavík
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v KA Akureyri (H)4-1
- Oct 10 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Þór Akureyri (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Keflavík IF (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stjarnan Garðabær | Valur Reykjavík |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.