Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 00:30 · St.Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Likeliest: Vancouver Whitecaps win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
St.Louis City31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Vancouver Whitecaps42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
St.Louis City
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v LA Galaxy (H)6-2
- Sep 30 · at New York Red Bulls (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Toronto FC (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Colorado Rapids (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Minnesota United (H)4-2
Vancouver Whitecaps
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v DC United (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Real Salt Lake (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Austin FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | St.Louis City | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.