League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Stockport County vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stockport County69%67%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Barnsley12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stockport County
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 6 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Peterborough United (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Leicester City (H)3-4
- Sep 5 · at Wigan Athletic (A)4-0
Barnsley
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 6 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Leeds United U21 (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Peterborough United (A)3-3
- Sep 12 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Stockport County | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.