League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Stockport County vs Bromley
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 78%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 78% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stockport County78%74%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−1
OursMarket
Bromley9%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stockport County
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Barnsley (H)3-1
- Oct 6 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Peterborough United (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Leicester City (H)3-4
Bromley
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Mansfield Town (A)1-2
- Oct 6 · at Crawley Town (A)0-4
- Sep 22 · v Brentford U21 (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Huddersfield Town (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Stockport County | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.