League One (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Stockport County vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Stockport County win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stockport County51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Leicester City25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stockport County
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Wigan Athletic (A)4-0
- Sep 2 · at Luton Town (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Blackpool (H)1-2
- Aug 18 · v Everton U21 (H)6-3
Leicester City
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Oxford United (H)0-4
- Sep 1 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Burton Albion (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Stockport County | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.