Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 · Stoke City vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 37%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City49%37%+13
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers24%35%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 47% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 65% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 63% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 51% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 6 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Apr 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Preston North End (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v Watford (H)3-1
- Mar 10 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-3
Blackburn Rovers
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 6 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)0-0
- Apr 3 · at Birmingham City (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · v Middlesbrough (H)0-0
- Mar 14 · at Millwall (A)2-1
- Mar 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.