Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Stoke City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Bristol City31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Derby County (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Watford (A)2-1
Bristol City
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Sheffield United (H)0-1
- Oct 13 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Lincoln City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.