Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 19:45 · Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 44%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City27%52%−25
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic44%21%+23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 46% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 79% | −23 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 48% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 71% | −33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Nov 22 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Nov 8 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Nov 4 · at Oxford United (A)3-0
- Nov 1 · v Bristol City (H)5-1
- Oct 25 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
Charlton Athletic
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Southampton (H)1-5
- Nov 8 · at Wrexham (A)0-1
- Nov 4 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Swansea City (H)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Hull City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.