Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:30 · Stoke City vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Charlton Athletic win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 26%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City35%45%−9
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic39%26%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 49% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 74% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 63% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-4
- Aug 25 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
Charlton Athletic
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 2 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Preston North End (H)1-0
- Aug 26 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-5
- Aug 22 · at West Ham United (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Derby County (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.