FA Cup (England) · Sat, Jan 10 · 15:00 · Stoke City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 30%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City42%30%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Coventry City34%42%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 58% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 70% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 42% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Jan 4 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
- Jan 1 · at Hull City (A)1-0
- Dec 29 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Dec 26 · v Preston North End (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Watford (A)0-1
Coventry City
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 4 · at Birmingham City (A)2-3
- Jan 1 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-1
- Dec 29 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Dec 26 · v Swansea City (H)1-0
- Dec 20 · at Southampton (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.