Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 29 · 12:30 · Stoke City vs Hull City
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 37%
A 33% away win. The market says 20%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City37%55%−18
OursMarket
Draw30%25%+5
OursMarket
Hull City33%20%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 53% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 80% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 45% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 75% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 73% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Nov 25 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Nov 8 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Nov 4 · at Oxford United (A)3-0
- Nov 1 · v Bristol City (H)5-1
Hull City
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-3
- Nov 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-2
- Nov 4 · at Derby County (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.