EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Stoke City vs Hull City
Likeliest: Hull City win · 43%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City32%31%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−4
OursMarket
Hull City43%40%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 47% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 53% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 43% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
Hull City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Millwall (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- May 2 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.