Championship (England) · Wed, Jan 21 · 20:00 · Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City45%32%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Middlesbrough29%40%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 60% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 68% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 44% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
- Jan 4 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
- Jan 1 · at Hull City (A)1-0
- Dec 29 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
Middlesbrough
LossLossWinLossWin
- Jan 16 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Fulham (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Southampton (H)4-0
- Jan 1 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.