Championship (England) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Stoke City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Middlesbrough win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City23%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Middlesbrough50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Sheffield United (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Watford (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
Middlesbrough
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · v Wolverhampton (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Birmingham City (A)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Millwall (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Norwich City (H)4-3
- Sep 8 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.