Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · Stoke City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 38%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City34%26%+7
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
Millwall38%48%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 54% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 57% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 36% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 18 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Apr 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Preston North End (A)1-3
Millwall
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Apr 18 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 6 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.