Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 19:00 · Stoke City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Norwich City win · 38%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City35%32%+3
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Norwich City38%41%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 56% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 44% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 29 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-4
- Aug 25 · v Hull City (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Aug 15 · v Swansea City (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
Norwich City
WinLossLossWinWin
- Aug 29 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Aug 25 · at Cardiff City (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Millwall (A)0-3
- Aug 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.