EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Stoke City vs Oldham Athletic
Likeliest: Oldham Athletic win · 41%
A 30% draw. The market says 19%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City29%67%−37
OursMarket
Draw30%19%+10
OursMarket
Oldham Athletic41%14%+27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 60% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 52% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 86% | −27 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 33% | +37 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 81% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 83% | −41 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 2 · at Bristol City (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Apr 21 · v Millwall (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
Oldham Athletic
LossLossLossLossWin
- May 2 · v Accrington Stanley (H)3-0
- Apr 25 · at Newport County (A)2-3
- Apr 18 · v Salford City (H)1-2
- Apr 14 · at Barrow (A)2-3
- Apr 11 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.