Championship (England) · Wed, Feb 25 · 20:00 · Stoke City vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 44%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City44%50%−7
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Oxford United30%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 45% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 70% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Feb 21 · v Leicester City (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Fulham (H)1-2
- Feb 11 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Southampton (H)0-2
Oxford United
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Feb 21 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Feb 15 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 10 · v Norwich City (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at Coventry City (A)0-0
- Feb 3 · at Sheffield United (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.