Championship (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Stoke City vs Portsmouth
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 35%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City47%35%+11
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Portsmouth25%36%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 49% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 54% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 64% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 65% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 50% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 21 · v Millwall (H)1-3
- Apr 18 · at Wrexham (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Derby County (A)0-2
- Apr 3 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
Portsmouth
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 21 · at Coventry City (A)1-5
- Apr 18 · v Leicester City (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.