Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 26 · 15:00 · Stoke City vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 38%
A 34% away win. The market says 27%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City38%45%−7
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Preston North End34%27%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 73% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 63% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 20 · at Watford (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Sheffield United (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hull City (H)1-2
Preston North End
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Dec 20 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
- Dec 13 · at Oxford United (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Coventry City (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Wrexham (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.