Championship (England) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Stoke City vs Sheffield United
Likeliest: Stoke City win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 34%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Stoke City46%34%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Sheffield United30%37%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 63% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 48% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Stoke City
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Dec 26 · v Preston North End (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Watford (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Sheffield United (A)0-4
Sheffield United
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Dec 26 · at Wrexham (A)3-5
- Dec 20 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Dec 12 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-2
- Dec 9 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Stoke City (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Stoke City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.